Stage-based sales forecasting has some obvious advantages. It seems easy and intuitive to establish the probability of winning a sale when your forecasts mirror your sales process. The details depend on your business, but suppose you have a 10-step sales process and you’ve mapped a 10% chance of winning to each step. “Customer sees product demo” is step number 7, and when the demo is complete, you report that the probability of your company winning the sale is now at 70%. This 70% probability of winning the sale is then factored into your weighted sales forecasts.

But stage-based sales forecasting can be misleading and even reduce your sales effectiveness. Stage-based forecasting is inherently salesperson-focused, rather than customer-focused. Getting to step #7 in your sales process does not necessarily mean that you have a 70% chance of winning. Thinking from the perspective of stage-based sales forecasting may be distracting you from important elements of the sales environment, such as the position of each key decision-maker and what your competition is up to.

When one is working daily with a stage-based forecasting methodology, it’s natural for a salesperson to end up thinking along the lines of “How can I get the customer to see our product?”, rather than “How can I understand what the customer is trying to achieve, and then position our company to reach that goal for them?”

From the customer’s perspective, especially in the complex B2B sales world, they are not just shopping for something new. The customer is trying to solve a problem. Rushing into a product demo for the sake of achieving step 7 in your sales process does little to ensure that your solution is in line with the customer’s needs. In fact, it can be detrimental to the deal; the opposite of improving your odds by 10%.

You don’t necessarily increase your chances of winning a sale simply by getting to the next step in your sales process. It’s the other way around—the ideal next step in your sales process should be to do what it takes to increase your chances of winning. The distinction is both ideological and practical.

Sure, you have a process that has been fine-tuned for your industry; it has been tested and proven. But the sales process and the probability of winning a sale do not always march in lock-step. In reality, the sales cycle follows the buying cycle, and must adapt to the unique sales environment of each opportunity.

The best measure of the probability of winning a sale comes from establishing the customer’s needs and truly understanding their goals, timeline, budget, limitations, buying process and the obstacles that stand in the way of being able to make a purchasing decision. There is also the matter of where your competition stands in any deal. If your sales forecasts are going to be accurate and reliable, these factors must be taken into account by your sales forecasting method.

What gets measured gets done, as they say. Is your company measuring sales process or the real probability of winning sales?

Throughout the coming weeks and months, we will be releasing Sneak Peeks of Keith Thompson’s upcoming book, OPM: Opportunity Portfolio Management, through the SalesWays blog. Here, you’ll get snapshots of the OPM method, and have a chance to see what makes OPM stand out.

There are four types of salespeople, and in our many collective years as sales professionals, we have, more than likely, met all of them.

Type 1: There won’t be many salespeople who have been working for any lengthy period of time, that still happen to be here. Type 1 salespeople don’t like dealing with people, and they will also be very weak at basic selling skills.

Type 2: This salesperson relies on friendship with the customer to win sales, but shies away from competitive selling. They will have a loyal circle of customers who will repeatedly buy, but they can get trounced by salespeople who have better selling skills.

Type 3: Type 3 salespeople are aggressive, hard-working, and excellent sales tacticians, which puts them in a good position to win most sales they come across. But once a sale is made, they often fail to follow up with the customer to ensure that the customer is happy with what they have paid for. As the customer relationship declines, repeat sales become unlikely. This salesperson is the very definition of a “one hit wonder” in the sales business.

Type 4: This is the place to be. Type 4 salespeople are comfortable with building the customer relationship where necessary, but also have the ability to win the sale by sound and proven sales practice. What’s more, they can switch between either of the styles as the dynamic of the sale changes.

It goes without saying that every salesperson should strive to be Type 4. Which type are you? And if you aren’t yet a Type 4, what can you do to get there?