Stage-based sales forecasting has some obvious advantages. It seems easy and intuitive to establish the probability of winning a sale when your forecasts mirror your sales process. The details depend on your business, but suppose you have a 10-step sales process and you’ve mapped a 10% chance of winning to each step. “Customer sees product demo” is step number 7, and when the demo is complete, you report that the probability of your company winning the sale is now at 70%. This 70% probability of winning the sale is then factored into your weighted sales forecasts.

But stage-based sales forecasting can be misleading and even reduce your sales effectiveness. Stage-based forecasting is inherently salesperson-focused, rather than customer-focused. Getting to step #7 in your sales process does not necessarily mean that you have a 70% chance of winning. Thinking from the perspective of stage-based sales forecasting may be distracting you from important elements of the sales environment, such as the position of each key decision-maker and what your competition is up to.

When one is working daily with a stage-based forecasting methodology, it’s natural for a salesperson to end up thinking along the lines of “How can I get the customer to see our product?”, rather than “How can I understand what the customer is trying to achieve, and then position our company to reach that goal for them?”

From the customer’s perspective, especially in the complex B2B sales world, they are not just shopping for something new. The customer is trying to solve a problem. Rushing into a product demo for the sake of achieving step 7 in your sales process does little to ensure that your solution is in line with the customer’s needs. In fact, it can be detrimental to the deal; the opposite of improving your odds by 10%.

You don’t necessarily increase your chances of winning a sale simply by getting to the next step in your sales process. It’s the other way around—the ideal next step in your sales process should be to do what it takes to increase your chances of winning. The distinction is both ideological and practical.

Sure, you have a process that has been fine-tuned for your industry; it has been tested and proven. But the sales process and the probability of winning a sale do not always march in lock-step. In reality, the sales cycle follows the buying cycle, and must adapt to the unique sales environment of each opportunity.

The best measure of the probability of winning a sale comes from establishing the customer’s needs and truly understanding their goals, timeline, budget, limitations, buying process and the obstacles that stand in the way of being able to make a purchasing decision. There is also the matter of where your competition stands in any deal. If your sales forecasts are going to be accurate and reliable, these factors must be taken into account by your sales forecasting method.

What gets measured gets done, as they say. Is your company measuring sales process or the real probability of winning sales?